“Killer AI” and chemical weapons development: How real is the risk? How the OPCW could adapt

Author: Stefan Mogl

The OPCW is the implementing organisation for the Chemical Weapons Convention, and what the OPCW is mandated to do, is described in the Convention text, and further subject to decisions by the policy making organs. In order to assess how the OPCW could be affected by developments in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the presentation will look at two questions:

  • Could AI have an effect on the text of the Convention?
  • Could AI influence how the OPCW implements its mandate?

Structured according to the Articles of the Convention, the presentations will briefly address these two questions for:

  • The general obligations in Article I
  • The definitions for chemical weapons in Article II
  • The obligations for declarations in Article III
  • Chemical weapons, chemical weapons production facilities and their destruction in Article IV and Article V
  • Activities not prohibited under this Convention and the industry verification regime in Article VI
  • The requirements for national implementation, the functioning of the Policy Making Organs and the running of the OPCW as an organisation in Article VII and Article VIII
  • The Annex on Chemicals, and
  • The Annex on Implementation and Verification

With a focus on OPCW Verification in general, the presentation will further look at how AI could be applied in support of an illicit chemical weapons program and how AI could assist the OPCW to discover an illicit chemical weapons program. The presentation will close with a summary of the findings from the perspective of the author and with suggestions for the way forward.

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